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Wednesday, October 01, 2014

It's time education consumers were enabled to make informed decisions

Two years ago university tuition fees in Canada averaged about $5,366 a year and students in B.C. who took out a student loan to finance their education began their working life with a debt of nearly $27,000.

Unfortunately all too often these students receive little or no information about the demand there is for the program in which they are studying.  As a result over supply and under supply issues abound, all at tremendous waste of both student and taxpayer dollars.

So for example in 2010 1,861 new education grads were certified by the B.C. College of Teachers, with another 824 out-of-province teachers certified thanks to a then new inter-provincial agreement. That means nearly 2,700 new teachers to B.C. when only about 1,000 teachers are needed annually.

In contrast the media has reported at various times about a growing shortage of nurses here in British Columbia.  Yet when students are in high school they are not provided with up to date information about what their job prospects would be as a nurse versus as a teacher.
Similarly there is also a lack of information regarding the job and income prospects of not just those debating studying fine arts versus engineering but those considering becoming a welder versus a carpenter.

This lack of information results not only in students wasting their time and money but also in government wasting its money and finding itself with a surplus of qualified applicants in one area (education) and shortages in another (health care).  It also means that other inefficiencies go unreported.  For example in nursing it is now a two year program to become and LPN and a four year program to become an RN.

One would logically think that if an LPN wished to upgrade from an LPN to an RN there would be an abundance of programs designed to facilitate this transition when in fact there are none.  So an LPN who already has two years of education and perhaps half a dozen years of nursing experience will receive no credit for either and will instead have to start back at square one on a four year program to become an RN, as a result few LPNs become RNs.

What an incredible waste of opportunity as well as resources.  When it comes to skilled trades again there is a lack of information available to students as to how about getting their ticket, as well as a relative lack of shop classes in our public school system.

By providing education consumers with adequate information they can make better choices.  As better informed consumers, students will also help ensure that post secondary institutions do a better job of matching the supply of programs and courses with actual real world demand.

In 2013 the top ten careers were:

  1. Financial Managers and Accountants
  2. Skilled Tradespeople
  3. Software and mobile app developers
  4. Registered Nurses
  5. Psychologists, social workers and counsellors
  6. Medical Technicians
  7. Human Resource Managers
  8. Pharmacists
  9.  Audiologists, speech therapists and physiotherapists
  10. Construction Managers


At the other end of the scale there is currently perhaps no worse a career to embark on than journalism.  Not only are jobs drying up so too are the salaries.  Yet in British Columbia nearly every college, technical institute and university still offers a journalism program.  It is at this point I should mention for the record that I graduated way back in 1989 with a degree in Economics, but I digress.

The point is that you as a consumer would not take out a loan for $27,000 on a car if you had no idea about its gas mileage, performance or reliability.  Yet all too often we expect students to make choices with far too little information.  Every program should have with it information about what the employment rate is after one year, five years and ten years and what the average income level is over those same time periods.

It doesn't mean we won't have any more English lit majors, it just means we will have fewer of them struggling to pay off student loans while working as baristas.  Conversely we will likely have more students interested in becoming skilled tradepersons, construction managers and the like.  Government will have less of its money wasted training young people for jobs that no longer exists while business will thrive because supply will better fit demand in terms of the job market.

Michael Geoghegan is the Executive Director of COCTA and a government relations consultant (lobbyist) based in Victoria BC  He can often be seen providing political commentary on CTV News Channel.



Friday, August 01, 2014

Lowering speed limits causes more accidents: a letter to Victoria's Mayor and Council

Dear Mayor and Council:

I recently had the experience of driving on a four lane section of Quadra street that is now marked 40 km/h, as a result I now know where Victoria ends and Saanich begins on that section of road.

I can also report that no one was driving 40 km/h they were driving 50 or even 60 km/h (as a safe driver I was going with the flow of traffic).  A similar thing happens on Blanshard street.  No one drives 50 km/h on the north end of Blanshard they drive at 60 km/h whereas at the south end people drive 40 km/h even though the entire length of the street is posted 50 km/h.  Why because capable drivers don’t drive according to speed limits they drive according to road conditions.

I know I know its that darn pesky counter intuitive thing, “oh lower speed limits must be safer because it's just common sense,” actually it causes more accidents.  Unreasonably low speed limits result in a majority of drivers having to contend with the minority of drivers who ignore road conditions and drive according to what the little white signs tell them to resulting in more accidents,

That is why for example in Britain when certain earnest types lowered speed limits from 30 mph to 20 mph traffic accident rates increased.  This was at the same time that accident rates on the streets they left at 30 mph and 40 mph actually declined.  See the following link:
I know that you all want to do good and lowering speed limits is a great way to get that warm “I made the world a better place” feeling without having to come up with an additional line item on your operating budget.  But the fact is that you didn’t make our streets safer.  You made them more dangerous. 

I don’t always agree with your staff, but in this instance they got it right and you should have listened to them.  They noted the safest speed limits are those posted at the 85 percentile.  They recommended against lowering speed limits and far from saving lives you are actually going to cause more death and injury.

I would therefore request that you carefully track what happens with the accident rates on the streets whose speed limits you recently lowered and that if they increase (as is likely) that you revisit your decision.

To those that voted against lowering the speed limits thank you, to those that championed it please rely more on real world results and less on your “intuitive” thinking.

Sincerely,


Michael Geoghegan

Monday, April 28, 2014

Minister Kenney vows to get tough on companies abusing temporary foreign worker program. Employers could face fraud charges and jail time.


In the wake of recent stories about Canadian workers being laid off and their jobs replaced with temporary foreign workers, Canada's Employment Minister Jason Kenney has warned that employers who abuse the program could face fraud charges and jail time.

"Obviously, in some small numbers, there are cases of abuse, and we don't tolerate those; we intend to crack down on them severely," Kenney recently stated.

"The more important thing is that we prevent abuse in the first place and that's why we've tightened up the rules, and we'll continue to do so."

He made good on his word when on April 24th, Employment Minister Jason Kenney took action by banning restaurants from accessing it.  Minister Kenney issued the moratorium mere hours after the C.D. Howe Institute released a study into the Temporary Foreign Worker program that concluded it had spurred joblessness in B.C. and Alberta, two valuable Conservative strongholds.

On the day previously, McDonald's of Canada had announced it was putting on hold its participation in the program pending a third party audit. The fast-food giant has been in hot water for hiring so many temporary foreign workers at some of its Canadian franchises most notably here in Victoria, B.C.

There has been a significant increase in the number of hotels and restaurants accessing the program even though the Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) Program was originally designed to address shortages of skilled workers, not low skilled and entry level labour.

Don Drummond, an economist who wrote a report for the government five years ago on labour markets, said there's no hard data to back up Ottawa's insistence that a persistent skills shortage justifies the use of such workers.

"They keep saying we don't have any trades people, but in the latest data for every available construction job in Canada, there's eight unemployed construction workers. Even when you look at the data over the summer — a busy time in construction — overwhelmingly, there are unemployed people in construction as opposed to job vacancies."

Kenney, who met with Drummond last fall has acknowledged the government needs to do a better job compiling meaningful labour market data.  The minister has also hinted that he's mulling over restrictions that would make it more difficult for fast-food restaurants in urban areas to apply for temporary foreign workers amid a spate of alleged abuses of the program by restaurant owners.

Employers need to keep in mind that 2015 will be a federal election year and as such those that most egregiously abuse the TFW Program may find themselves being made an example of given a government that is eager to be seen as protecting Canada's middle class.

The political importance of the middle class here in Canada cannot be over stated.   In Canada, where there are strict campaign spending limits and both union and corporate donations have been made verbotten, politicians of all political stripes chase middle class votes and donations.
Contrast that with the United States where the absence of campaign spending limits has led to a situation in which a recent Princeton University Study concluded that the United States has become an oligarchy where government represents the interests of the wealthy rather than those of the majority.

Naturally when you have policies that favour the wealthy over those of the poor and middle class it will eventually have a real impact on a nation's income distribution.  That is why on April 22nd, the New York Times reported that America's middle class is no longer the most affluent.  That distinction now goes to Canada.

Minister Jason Kenney was quick to tweet this fact out, not only out of a sense of national pride, but in response from political attacks from both the NDP and Liberals that have called into question how Canada's middle class have been doing under the Conservatives.

The answer it would seem is, pretty good.  From 2000 until 2010 median income in the United States stagnated while in Canada it increased by 20 per cent.  The data also suggests these trends have only continued since then putting Canada's middle class solidly ahead of America's.

It is for this reason that the Harper Conservatives, while wanting to be responsive to the needs of the business community, do not want to be seen as the government that killed off your kid's chances to land an entry level job in high school or a mortgage paying job in the construction and resource sectors.

Thus any company making use of the TFW will likely be subjected to much greater scrutiny and if abuse has been found, it is more than likely they will be made an example of.


Michael Geoghegan is a government relations consultant based in Victoria BC you can follow him on twitter @BCLobbyist

Friday, April 25, 2014

It was a tremendous honour to be part of the AOE Canada team that won the Victoria Chamber of Commerce 2014 Innovation Award last night thank you!  For more Accumulated Ocean Energy please visit our website at http://www.aoecanada.ca/



Friday, January 17, 2014

Tsunami of Seniors makes pipelines imperative

Remember Dennis Hopper?  He starred in such iconic movies as Easy Rider and Apocalypse Now, he died back in 2010 of prostate cancer.  Although technically a bit older than the baby boom generation, the front end of that demographic bulge is well into its 60's.

Perhaps no nation on Earth experienced as large a post war baby boom as did Canada and as a result in the coming decades the escalating costs of caring for seniors is set to now sky rocket.   The problem is that when it comes to public health care dollars British Columbia is already pretty much tapped out.

Despite the fact that 40 cents of every dollar the provincial government takes in is now spent  on health care, people are seeing longer waiting times at the emergency room, increases in MSP fees and more stacking of patients in hallways.

Just as there was a scramble to build schools in the 1960s now there is a scramble to build seniors care facilities.  In some ways Hopper was lucky, despite decades of drug abuse, it was cancer rather than dementia that overtook him.  Many aging boomers won't be so lucky.

Unless we are all going to simply take a long walk off a short pier when we get too old to take care of ourselves, British Columbia is going to need a lot more in the way of revenue.  Canada isn't bringing in enough young immigrants who will pay the taxes for us as we age and thanks to million dollar fixer upper homes many young people are forgoing the dream of not only own home ownership but of having kids altogether.

British Columbia's government is betting heavily that LNG exports will provide enough in the way of revenue to help get us through the coming decades.  The oil and gas sector is also one of the few areas where a young person can hope to find a decent paying job that allows them the opportunity to own a home buy a house and raise a family.

But there are environmental reasons why British Columbians should support the construction of pipelines.  The first is that moving oil and gas by pipeline is safer than moving it by train.  On July 6, 2013 47 people were killed and more than 30 buildings destroyed in the town of Lac-Megantic in Quebec when a 74 car freight train carrying crude oil derailed and exploded.

New pipelines can be built so as to avoid heavily populated areas, old railroads were built to connect our towns and cities.  If we don't allow the building of pipelines, railroad companies are happy to keep building more tanker cars.  Either way that oil and gas is going to get to market.  Anyone who believes otherwise is being painfully naive.  China did not invest billions of dollars into Canada's oil and gas sector just to see the resource sit in the ground and meanwhile the United States is so busy fracking that it is set to once again become a net oil exporting country.

The second reason is air pollution.  Right now China with its population of over 1.35 billion people relies heavily on coal for its energy needs.  As a result Beijing often sees its concentration of toxic air particles rise to between twenty and thirty times the level considered safe for humans to breathe.  In fact in January of 2014 Beijing's smog level was at 24 times the safe level.

In fact there is some suggestion that China has pumped so much pollution into the Earth's atmosphere that it is starting to overwhelm the effects of global warming leading to record cold weather in much of North America this winter.

As a species we need to clean up our act.  Switching from coal to liquid natural gas is a much needed first step.  The next step is switching to energy that does not require the burning of fossil fuels.  That is why I am involved with a company called AOE Canada that is able to convert wave energy into compressed air which in turn can be used to provide energy as well as clean drinking water.

Much has changed in China over the past 60 years.  In 1952 the average Chinese person was poorer and had less to eat than in 952, that's right they were worse off than where they had been a thousand years earlier.  Now they have got their population growth under control and their economy is booming.

As China transitions from coal to LNG it will mean less global air pollution and acid rain.  As China transitions to alternative energy such as solar, wind and wave then greenhouse gas emissions will also start to fall.

British Columbians can be part of this positive change by supporting cleaner fuels like LNG as well as the development of alternative energy.  Just as importantly we can also help ourselves our parents and our children by ensuring that we get maximum value for our oil and gas exports so that we can  afford to retire and die with dignity.

In the meantime, be nice to your kids they are the ones who get to pick what retirement home you will be living in.


 MichaelGeoghegan is a government relations consultant based in Victoria

Sunday, December 15, 2013

priorities trolling for dollars or sane speed limits?

Let me begin by stating that I am a Road Star, I receive the maximum safe driver discount from ICBC because of my accident free driving record.  I attribute my accident free record to the fact that I pay attention to the road and I go with the flow of traffic.  Because I do a lot of driving I find that this habit tends to also net me one or two tickets per year.  Thus I get the joy of receiving an obnoxious computer generated letter from ICBC threatening some mysterious punitive action because of my reckless behaviour.  Imagine how incredibly insulting and patronising such nanny state missives are, especially as someone who insures four vehicles with ICBC.

As someone who has driven extensively in the United States and to a lesser extent Germany let me state that I support speed limits.  I have driven on the autobahn where there are no speed limits and passing a truck while a split second later having some BMW six inches off your bumper, left blinker going, is unsettling to say the least.  I find it stressful, but I also find driving in British Columbia equally stressful because of our low speed limits and the number of poorly educated drivers we have particularly in the Victoria area.

On several occasions now I have watched in horror at drivers who are stopped on a merge lane because they do not understand the critical difference between a merge and a yield.  I have watched cars lazily go into the left lane without passing cars in the right which is the rule on most highways in North America.  I frequently drive on the Pat Bay Highway.  For most of its length the speed limit is only 80 km/h.  No one drives this speed limit, not even the police, except when the cops are out there trolling for dollars.  The inevitable result is bottle necks enhanced by the new slow down move over rule which pretty much ensures we now lose a lane and dangerous traffic congestion ensues.

I once talked to a retired RCMP officer about the Pat Bay Highway and he noted that in France the same road would have a speed limit of 130 km/h.  That may be a tad high but 80 km/h for most of its length is certainly far too low.  The law should reflect what speed most traffic is actually driving at and on the Pat Bay that would be 100 to 110 km/h

Let me contrast the anxiety I feel driving with the flow of traffic in BC, with that of driving in the United States where speed limits are on average 30 per cent higher.  First of all when I am going with the flow on a US Interstate, cars are generally at or below the posted speed limit and there is a focus on moving vehicles efficiently.  If people are not passing they stay in the right hand lane on a four lane highway.  Even under heavy traffic conditions it is often far easier to get around on a given stretch of highway in Washington State than in BC

The Sea to Sky Highway is a particularly amusing example of our province’s penchant for low speed limits.  I was driving up to Whistler to attend a UBCM conference shortly after the Sea to Sky Highway had received its billion dollar upgrade.  The speed limits were kept at 80 km/h.  It was a bright sunny September day with ideal driving conditions and as a result every vehicle was in the right hand lane driving at exactly 110 km/h.  We are talking everything from one tonne trucks to sports cars all doing 110 km/h while leaving the left passing lane completely empty.  No one wanted to do 120 km/h and risk getting their vehicle impounded but everyone was content to do 110 km/h and risk getting a speeding ticket.  That is because the speed limit was kept far too low.

A similar situation happened on the Nanaimo Parkway when it first opened; its speed limit was set at only 80 km/h.  So many tickets were issued (the Nanaimo RCMP are noted for their enthusiasm in handing out speeding tickets) that a public backlash ensued and the speed limit was raised to 90 km/h.  I was one of the people unfortunate enough to get a ticket back when it was still 80 km/h for going 90 km/h with the result that the state was able to milk me for a lot of money for having the temerity to go with the flow of traffic in the passing lane.

In general all highways that are posted at 80 km/h in BC should be raised to 100 km/h and all 90 km/h should be raised to 110 km/h.  There are going to be road situations like the infamous Malahat where speed limits will have to be lower but those signs should be in yellow to indicate that the government is not just being capricious but that this is a dangerously inadequate road and thus drive cautiously.

Now what about those all too rare sections of road where the current speed limit is 100 km/h or even 110 km/h?  Again bump them up by 20 km/h to 120 km/h and 130 km/h respectively.  There may be sections where you need to keep the speed limit lower than that but overall there should not be a highway in British Columbia with a general speed limit of less than 100 km/h.  If there is then you should not call it a highway and certainly not a freeway call it what it is a substandard roadway.

With speed limits that are set to maximise the flow of traffic rather than government revenue, I think we would have far less distracted drivers and fewer accidents.  In fact in those places in the United States where speed limits increased, traffic accidents and fatalities declined.  We might even start seeing the return of tourists who drive to B.C.

I thank you for your due consideration of this submission.  I would have presented it in person to your Nanaimo hearing except quite frankly I avoid driving up island because of the appalling condition of the Malahat and the aforementioned enthusiasm of the Nanaimo RCMP for ticketing drivers on the Island Highway.

Sincerely,

Michael Geoghegan

PS This article/submission has also been posted to the SENSEBC website click here

Friday, November 01, 2013

It's time we had an education system that is geared towards skilled trades

If there is one thing the recent provincial election made clear, it's that blue collar jobs still matter in British Columbia.  Premier Christy Clark, did many a photo op while sporting a hard hat, while NDP leader Adrian Dix suddenly announced that he was opposed to the twinning of the Kinder Morgan pipeline.
The "Kinder surprise" as it has come to be known in political circles took the BC NDP from a twenty point lead to a devastating upset electoral defeat.  It was a clear message from voters, especially middle class and blue collar workers that they wanted a government that was friendly to business investment and resource sector development.
This is because most people understand that the resource sector and construction trades are one of the few areas where a young person can hope to obtain the kind of job that allows them to live on and perhaps even start a family.  Those jobs used to be plentiful but now with low paying service sector jobs burgeoning and manufacturing jobs all but non-existent, it is the skilled trades person or contractor who now has the best chance at making a middle class income.
The time has come where a skilled trade is more valuable than a university degree at yet our education system continues to behave as if the exact opposite was true.  A study from CIBC World Markets, by Benjamin Tal and Emanuella Enenajor, says that Canada has the highest proportion of adults with post-secondary degrees in the developed world.
Yes there are still areas of study such as engineering and medicine where graduates can still expect to make high incomes, but for many other graduates all they are left with is a significant amount of debt and very little in the way of enhanced job prospects.
In fact if you are a fine arts graduate you can expect to earn less than if you are just a high school graduate and as the CIBC study states:
"Narrowing employment and earning premiums for higher education mean that, on average, Canada is experiencing an excess supply of post-secondary graduates."
At the same time we are experiencing a shortage of skilled trades persons.  Why has this happened?  For one reason over the past 50 years, there has been far more in the way of resources directed towards universities than institutions that teach skilled trades.

For another there was this erroneous assumption that in the 21st century automation would replace all the jobs where you might get your fingernails dirty.  Yes you can use a robot to weld a car on an assembly line, but it doesn't work so good in terms of running medical gas lines through a hospital.

On the other hand no one envisioned a world in which computer code writing, accounting and even legal services would start to be outsourced to low paid but well educated people in places like Bangalore India.

In recent years there has been a growing movement to bring in skilled workers from other countries and in other instances there has been a movement to undermine the red seal certification program.  These are short term fixes and in the long run damaging to Canada's economy and public safety.

What we instead need to do is have a public education system that encourages people to become skilled tradespersons.  That means having well equipped and well funded wood working, metal, electrical and mechanics programs in all high schools throughout British Columbia.  It means turning the focus of our colleges away from being wannabe universities and towards skilled trades and designing curriculum in conjunction with British Columbia's contractors, unions and the Industry Training Authority so that credits and courses are readily transferrable.

We need to have post secondary institutions that are more responsive to the market place so that funding priorities line up with where the job market is at.  High schools and post secondary institutions also need to be far more aware of what jobs are actually in demand and be far more forthcoming with providing that information to students.

Why is it that most students graduate from highschool and even university without a clue as to how to start a business, the power of compounding interest, or even what they should study in order to maximise their chances of being successfully employed?

As consumers of increasingly expensive post secondary education, students should have the right to make informed decisions including which course of study gives them the best chance of paying off their student loans without going bankrupt or ending up as part of the growing ranks of the working poor.

By fostering skilled trades and greater business acumen we will also increase the number of successful small business owners.  This is critical as this is the group that, outside of government, does most of the hiring nowadays.


I know that my own son who is still in high school, is far more interested in making money in the oil patch than he is in being another post secondary student with a crushing debt load and meagre job prospects.  He wants to develop skills and work experience that will make him valuable not just in Canada but around the world, more young Canadians need to follow his example.