Thursday, May 31, 2001

Wipeout scenario predicted two full years in advance

In May of 1999 the forerunner of Michael Geoghegan Consulting, (Barlee Geoghegan & Associates) released a polling analysis predicting that the BC NDP would win 0 to 4 seats in the next provincial election.

The study had been authored by Bernard von Schulmann. Since Bernard is a federal Conservative, there were some within the BC NDP who accused the study and the author of having a right wing bias. So for the follow up study we got none other than former BC Green Party leader Stuart Parker to author it.

This second polling analysis, which was released in May of 2000, again predicted that the BC NDP would win 0 to 4 seats. Then in May of 2001 the BC NDP finally called an election and, as per our prediction, they won only two seats. Both of them ones we had identified as being amongst the four the NDP were the most likely to hang onto.